Friday, December 29, 2017

Climate Change versus Weather

The Orange one came out today to say that the cold weather shows that climate change is a myth.

Well, that is just dumb.

Here is how it breaks down.

If it is 70 degrees today, and 65 tomorrow, that is weather.

If there is a 30% chance of rain on Tuesday, that is weather.

If there is a 21% chance of rain on any random day in June, that is climate.

If the January temperatures average about 14 degrees, that is climate.

If the January temperatures in the last thirty years have averaged 5 degrees warmer than the average of the previous century, that is climate change.

If the whole world is showing an increase of temperature over the last thirty years that is anomalous when compared to the global averages of the previous century, that is GLOBAL climate change.

"But Jeffy, if the world is warming how can we still have cold days?"

Because the day to day variations are weather.

"But why have we been having these horrible cold spells, isn't that something that shouldn't happen if the world is warming?"

Actually, we have always been having nasty cold spells, tis the nature of the world.  But to better answer your question we have to go into some physics.

As you increase the total amount of energy in the atmosphere (by increasing the global average temperature) you also increase the available energy for storm systems to use to propel themselves, develop themselves, and maintain themselves.  Just because the global average is warmer does not mean that as a side effect you are also going to produce very strong high pressure systems full of arctic air that get pulled down into the United States by a very powerful jet stream and then left in place as the jet wraps around the system, instead of overriding it.

"So you are saying that as a side effect of global warming you can also have occasional colder weather?"

Yep.

It will not be warmer every day, but the AVERAGE of all of the days will end up being higher.

"But how do you know how this works?  What makes you so special?"

Because I went to school, and got a degree in the sciences, and as a side effect one of the super awesome upper division electives was a class in global climate change, taught by the people who actually do these studies.

Sunday, December 24, 2017

The old Kodak still takes lousy photos, but the painting is coming out nicely.

Keweenaw Sunset...

One of three that I am thinking of painting...

After correcting colors to match what I actually see, because that crappy old camera (Kodak easy-share z650) has lousy color settings and takes generally ugly pictures.

But it is easier that busting out the 60d...

Anyway, this is a really fast sunset picture, I started yesterday, and I have just a  few tweaks left to make on it!

Saturday, December 23, 2017

Quick commentary on Star Wars...

In the first Trilogy (we will say time 0), you had AT-ATs, and the first generation of the Star Destroyers. Protected by the TIE fighters

A generation later:

You have the same AT-ATs and Star Destroyers, plus a Death Star. all protected by TIE fighters.

A generation later:

You have the same AT-ATs and Star Destroyers, plus a star killer, and a Dreadnought, all protected by TIE fighters.

In the meantime the alliance has:

The same Millennium Falcon and X-wing craft.  The same Cruisers, and the like....

There is no technological progress with the exception of an occasional super-weapon in fifty-sixty years of history.  This would be like fighting the Vietnam War with the same weaponry as the First World War.  If I am not mistaken I did not see a lot of horses in Vietnam, and the bi-planes were completely absent.

It is true that you could say that the climates for WWI and Vietnam were completely different (Europe-SE Asia).  However if you look at Star Wars they are using the same craft on Hoth as they are on Endor.

Any good old fashioned Fascist regime would make development of weapons and the modernization of its military job one, apparently that is not the case in Star Wars.

MTC

Tis the season

won a lot of miscellaneous hardware for the boat on Ebay.  Springs, clips, clevises, stuff.  It will actually come in very handy next summer, especially since I went to the store the other day and found out they charge ten bucks for a single 1" long stainless pin.

I have been painting more.  I think I am going to try to put a show together, entitled "travels" once I get a few more paintings put together.
 Devil's tower, I need to do some detail work on trees, maybe add some lineation on the mountain.
 I may play with the sky, but mostly done, my God that little camera I got from Meagan takes lousy pictures...
I swear the coloration on this is not neon, just the camera, I still have a lot to do on this, the foreground is wrong, and needs about 30 hay bales.  The hill is missing something as well.

As it turns out the camera was set to some "enhanced color mode" which messed up the pictures in every way possible.

I have almost 3/4th of the boat paid for, I was giggling that I actually have a reason to go to the boat show this year, which is weird, an d a little bit troubling.

Alas, time passes, life gets weirder, stuff.

There should be a squirrel in there.

Saturday, December 16, 2017

a whole bunch of random in a nice neat ball

Turns out that getting away from Facebook is about the best thing that a person can do for themselves.

The paintings are coming along nicely, I do have to get some more started, but the ones that I have been working on are looking great.

It finally snowed, as a result I have already put 20 km on the skis so far this year.

I am thinking of going to Star Wars tonight.

I am also thinking of watching a movie and jumping on the exercise bike for a bit.

I have a very large wood pile ready to split for next year!

The weather man is calling for 11 inches of snow next Wednesday.

I can take a 40 minute nap before dinner.

By 'weatherman' I actually mean Accuweather, which is generally as accurate as throwing darts at a bunch of possible forecast options.

I think the nap is going to win, which means I have to find the cat.

Cat nap.

Wednesday, November 29, 2017

Friday, November 24, 2017

Google +

Is there anyone out there?  I just checked my news feed and it was all businesses.  I saw one post from a human in the top one-hundred.

This makes me wonder, is there anyone out there?

Painting continues..

This one is in South Dakota...

Still have no re-enabled FaceBook

Worked on the greenhouse today as well!  Progress is a wonderful thing!

I have a couple more hours before I can do anything else, so I am either going to start on another, or work on an older picture until this one sets up a little bit.

Wednesday, November 22, 2017

Start with the background...

The sky is blue, also the furthest away part of the picture.  So you start there, then you build on it, after you have given it some time to settle in...  Especially since I have discovered the best way to set the sky and get it reasonably smooth is to use a healthy dose of paint thinner....

Hopefully I don't blow up the basement...

Tuesday, November 21, 2017

Nebraska roadside field

The first painting of the set currently called "What happens when you quit Facebook".

It's a working title, I will actually be calling this set something to do with summer vacation...

But this is a hilly field off the side of highway 2 in Nebraska.  Sandhills region.



Sunday, November 19, 2017

What happens when you decide to disable Facebook?

Well, so far, worked on a writing project, worked out in the green house, ate a zucchini, hiked four miles, and now I am sitting down to paint.  Mostly because I am not wasting my time screwing around on the Internet.

I will post later with updates of what I worked on with the painting.  I have a few things I need to get worked through with the oils....

So much more time to accomplish things now that I am not wasting my time looking at what other people are up to.

Saturday, November 11, 2017

Getting the laptop prepared for sailing....

You would not think that the laptop would be my first priority to get ready for sailing, but, well...  It has its advantages....

OpenCPN is a navigation software that allows me to have a chart up and running with a GPS dongle so I can track my location.  This is largely unnecessary in the harbor and the near lake, but once you get out past a few miles all the shores look the same when you have never seen them before.  Also, after the sun goes down you lose your usual visual clues!

Oh well, in other news I decided that I am going to junk one of my cars, I just don't have the time to fix the stupid thing.  That and the transmission has too many sensors, that apparently all work against each other.

When will people learn, keep it simple stupid.

Tuesday, November 7, 2017

Oh, how I hate windows...

For fucks sake....

Reinstalling windows, again, on the laptop....

First time in 18 hours.

Required a reboot after installing .net, corrupted system....

Screw it, downgrading to Windows 7, which of course means that wifi wont install, and the video driver may be hosed, but screw it, as long st the little USB GPS dongle works (apparently it works better in 7 anyway) and I can still re enable Ubuntu after this install all is well.

Windows has not made a good OS since XP, if 7 does not behave I think I may try installing windows XP pro, because apparently XP pro can handle a quad-core processor just fine (and it should be screaming fast).

Saturday, November 4, 2017

Bleh

I guess that is all I have to say.  I am sore, and a touch itchy from doing insulation today.  It is not yet midnight on a Saturday and I am going to bed.

Meh.

Friday, October 6, 2017

Moved my papoose

Ok, not a papoose, but the boat is my baby, so maybe I could call the cradle a papoose.  It was interesting, shoving a 15' boat cradle into a 12' trailer and then towing the whole, really heavy mass, across the high bridge on the freeway behind a 1997 Nissan pickup truck.  I think I was right at the edge of what the truck can tow.  With just the trailer it towed just fine, but once I stuck the cradle in the trailer (trailer likely weighs about 1500 pounds, and the cradle would be another 1500 pounds) the combination developed a sway at 50 MPH.

Made it, have a safe place to keep the boat for the winter.  Next will be pulling the boat and winterizing!

Wednesday, September 27, 2017

The first weeks of boat ownership

I have owned a boat for three weeks now.  It has been a fun three weeks, despite it being the end of the season, and having a ton of projects to finish before the snow flies I have still managed four trips out on the boat, two were just "get the feet wet" simple cruises in the harbor, but twice now I have done the circle tour of Park Point, or as we call it, "going around the horn."

The circle of Park Point actually is about an 18 mile jaunt from dock to dock, and I am planning to pulverize that record this weekend if the weather holds and I can find one more deckhand.

Alas, sometimes finding sailors willing to do overnight cruises when it is going to be 45 degrees out is not so easy.

I only have about two weeks left before the boat comes out for the winter and gets put away until spring.

Alas, these short seasons, and it looks like it is going to be a hard winter!

But Big Bird is doing fine!

Wednesday, September 20, 2017

I snap my fingers, and torque my neck

And god damn did it hurt!  A week later, it still does. I only have a few more weeks of sailing left and I am 35% crippled.  I got home and worked in the shop all day today though, and that made me feel a lot better, I think it was the not sitting in the office that made all of the difference.

I have been studying up on everything I need to learn about boat refinishing.  I am going to end up doing a lot of work next year to refinish, refit, clean up, make suitable, and make pretty every aspect of a sailboat, while at the same time living on the thing.

It may kill me.

But it will be a warriors death.

The green house is coming along, slightly delayed by the above mentioned neck issues, but we are down to the putting the glass in and the on to the interior!

I cannot wait to have it enclosed so that I can start to actually use it like an extra workshop.  For plants and paints and stuff.

Joy.

Oh well, that is all I have for now.  I am going to fire up the laptop again one of these days and try to get some writing done.

I swear, it will happen.  I was going to do it today, but I ended up working in the shop trying to get everything cleaned up and organized instead.

Friday, September 15, 2017

Adventures of Big Bird!

Never thought I would write a post about a Muppet would you?  Well, I am not really writing about a Muppet, actually about a boat, named after a Muppet.

Because it is big and yellow!
The boat is an Ericson 32' sailboat, and now that I have had her out a few times I am getting more and more used to how she handles and what to expect from her.

Big Bird has been out for three cruises so far, the first was a quick out and back just to get the feeling for the boat, here are a couple of shots.




The second cruise I did not take any pictures, although my nephew shot a boat load (get it).  I may bug him for some later.

The third cruise was more extensive, did the circle tour of Park Point!  Because of the weather not cooperating (there was no wind) we did most of the cruise under motor.  But I did get some excellent shots!







I also designed a flag for the boat, which will be getting unveiled at some point.  My acrylic paint on loose fabric skills are a bit lacking, but here is the raw image.
We call it the "Jollier Roger"

Sunday, August 27, 2017

Thursday, back through the Big Horns! Then Montana

Thursday morning, woke up in the Big Horn mountains, then drove west out of the Big Horns, north, then back across the Big Horn Mountains via a different route!  Then scooted across Montana and into NoDak for the night.

Nice Marmot
Squirrel!

Way high up!
View from the top...
Distant marmot....

Millennial stylin...
Cairn


Dino

 Saur
 Cliffs
 Clouds
 Layers
 Dead dinosaur
 Layers

 Smooth

 Driving....

 Dinosaur!

 Dinosaur is resurrected!
 Cliffs!
 So scenic..
 So nice...
 Montana
 Badlands, everywhere
 Drought
 Hills
 I have passed this sign so many times....
 North Dakota!
 More badlands
 Prairie dogs everywhere 
Medora cliffs, and little Missouri River


Links to the whole eclipse adventure!
Driving down to Nebraska
Beginning of the eclipse
The eclipse proper! Totality!
The sun comes back
Driving across Nebraska
Sandhills, Badlands, Black hills
Close ups of Sandhills, Badlands, and the Black Hills
Black Hills to the Big Horns
Bighorns Nature Hike
Back through the Bighorns and across Montana