Friday, December 29, 2017

Climate Change versus Weather

The Orange one came out today to say that the cold weather shows that climate change is a myth.

Well, that is just dumb.

Here is how it breaks down.

If it is 70 degrees today, and 65 tomorrow, that is weather.

If there is a 30% chance of rain on Tuesday, that is weather.

If there is a 21% chance of rain on any random day in June, that is climate.

If the January temperatures average about 14 degrees, that is climate.

If the January temperatures in the last thirty years have averaged 5 degrees warmer than the average of the previous century, that is climate change.

If the whole world is showing an increase of temperature over the last thirty years that is anomalous when compared to the global averages of the previous century, that is GLOBAL climate change.

"But Jeffy, if the world is warming how can we still have cold days?"

Because the day to day variations are weather.

"But why have we been having these horrible cold spells, isn't that something that shouldn't happen if the world is warming?"

Actually, we have always been having nasty cold spells, tis the nature of the world.  But to better answer your question we have to go into some physics.

As you increase the total amount of energy in the atmosphere (by increasing the global average temperature) you also increase the available energy for storm systems to use to propel themselves, develop themselves, and maintain themselves.  Just because the global average is warmer does not mean that as a side effect you are also going to produce very strong high pressure systems full of arctic air that get pulled down into the United States by a very powerful jet stream and then left in place as the jet wraps around the system, instead of overriding it.

"So you are saying that as a side effect of global warming you can also have occasional colder weather?"

Yep.

It will not be warmer every day, but the AVERAGE of all of the days will end up being higher.

"But how do you know how this works?  What makes you so special?"

Because I went to school, and got a degree in the sciences, and as a side effect one of the super awesome upper division electives was a class in global climate change, taught by the people who actually do these studies.

Sunday, December 24, 2017

The old Kodak still takes lousy photos, but the painting is coming out nicely.

Keweenaw Sunset...

One of three that I am thinking of painting...

After correcting colors to match what I actually see, because that crappy old camera (Kodak easy-share z650) has lousy color settings and takes generally ugly pictures.

But it is easier that busting out the 60d...

Anyway, this is a really fast sunset picture, I started yesterday, and I have just a  few tweaks left to make on it!

Saturday, December 23, 2017

Quick commentary on Star Wars...

In the first Trilogy (we will say time 0), you had AT-ATs, and the first generation of the Star Destroyers. Protected by the TIE fighters

A generation later:

You have the same AT-ATs and Star Destroyers, plus a Death Star. all protected by TIE fighters.

A generation later:

You have the same AT-ATs and Star Destroyers, plus a star killer, and a Dreadnought, all protected by TIE fighters.

In the meantime the alliance has:

The same Millennium Falcon and X-wing craft.  The same Cruisers, and the like....

There is no technological progress with the exception of an occasional super-weapon in fifty-sixty years of history.  This would be like fighting the Vietnam War with the same weaponry as the First World War.  If I am not mistaken I did not see a lot of horses in Vietnam, and the bi-planes were completely absent.

It is true that you could say that the climates for WWI and Vietnam were completely different (Europe-SE Asia).  However if you look at Star Wars they are using the same craft on Hoth as they are on Endor.

Any good old fashioned Fascist regime would make development of weapons and the modernization of its military job one, apparently that is not the case in Star Wars.

MTC

Tis the season

won a lot of miscellaneous hardware for the boat on Ebay.  Springs, clips, clevises, stuff.  It will actually come in very handy next summer, especially since I went to the store the other day and found out they charge ten bucks for a single 1" long stainless pin.

I have been painting more.  I think I am going to try to put a show together, entitled "travels" once I get a few more paintings put together.
 Devil's tower, I need to do some detail work on trees, maybe add some lineation on the mountain.
 I may play with the sky, but mostly done, my God that little camera I got from Meagan takes lousy pictures...
I swear the coloration on this is not neon, just the camera, I still have a lot to do on this, the foreground is wrong, and needs about 30 hay bales.  The hill is missing something as well.

As it turns out the camera was set to some "enhanced color mode" which messed up the pictures in every way possible.

I have almost 3/4th of the boat paid for, I was giggling that I actually have a reason to go to the boat show this year, which is weird, an d a little bit troubling.

Alas, time passes, life gets weirder, stuff.

There should be a squirrel in there.

Saturday, December 16, 2017

a whole bunch of random in a nice neat ball

Turns out that getting away from Facebook is about the best thing that a person can do for themselves.

The paintings are coming along nicely, I do have to get some more started, but the ones that I have been working on are looking great.

It finally snowed, as a result I have already put 20 km on the skis so far this year.

I am thinking of going to Star Wars tonight.

I am also thinking of watching a movie and jumping on the exercise bike for a bit.

I have a very large wood pile ready to split for next year!

The weather man is calling for 11 inches of snow next Wednesday.

I can take a 40 minute nap before dinner.

By 'weatherman' I actually mean Accuweather, which is generally as accurate as throwing darts at a bunch of possible forecast options.

I think the nap is going to win, which means I have to find the cat.

Cat nap.